鍏抽敭璇�: 鍦伴渿鐏惧, 璇勪环妯″瀷, 鏈�澶ф崯澶遍噺

Abstract:

Research about potential loss assessment models for seismic hazard is the main part of the loss
assessment decision support system about seismic hazard, including two following parts, that is database
of the potential loss and loss assessment of the seismic. This database supports vector form special charts,
sensor data in grid form, module data about digital topography and the statistic data in table form and also
supports the switch between vector form and grid form. The property data of this database is stored in
independent relational database table and maps its corresponding space unit.
This research used the Tangshan city as application test area and synthesized many kinds of aviation
and satellite sensor data ( 1976 through 1996), topography data, basic ground factors and statistic data
about society economy, which are based on database to identify the factors of potential loss in the seismic
hazard and to make sure the maximum probability of each factor, then to estimate the maximum possible
loss.
Potential loss assessment models for seismic hazard are based on the probability theory to identity the
activity of seismic hazards and the possible relations between those seismic hazards. So the assay and
assessment is made up mainly by following parts:(1) Identifying the potential calamity events; (2)
identifying all kinds of potential factors of calamity events; (3) confirming the maximum probability of
each factor; (4) estimating the loss of hazard.
Making potential loss assessment models for seismic hazard, the procedure includes: (1) building the
current status of this potential hazard and the algorithm for potential trend of this potential loss for the
future; (2) ameliorating or adjusting the assessing algorithm of factors; (3) controlling the data quality in
the process of calculating for mathematics models; (4) assessing data precision of the calculating result for
data models.
It is a significant technique method attempt to research the potential loss assessment models for
seismic hazard by taking the seismic in Tangshan city as an example and synthesizing application sensor
and ground information system in order to assess the maximum potential loss in the seismic area. Further
research of model testing is ongoing.

Key words: Seismic hazard, Assessment model, Maximum loss